![]() Instead, Howe and Strauss say, history shows that societies pass through a sequence of "turnings" over and over again, repeating in every epoch the same cycle of social moods and cultural "seasons" they have experienced many times before. That theory is essentially a modernized version of the ancient, cyclical view of human affairs - a belief that neither any dark age nor any golden age is enduring. And he added, in case you're wondering, that he's at work on a new book to update the Fourth Turning theory. He compared our current moment to the 1930s run-up to World War II. I'll stand by "stubbornly interesting." In a webcast interview last week, Howe noted that war, as usual, is activating the "reptilian brain" of the current generation, with its tribal antipathies. It was an improbable time for a shadowy tome insisting that America teetered on the brink of a decadeslong "crisis" that would shake society to its foundations.īut I noted in 2017 that "rather a lot has happened since - 9/11 the terror war the 2008-11 global financial meltdown ever more bitter political strife - to make 'dark premonitions' look pretty darn prescient."Īnd how about now? After five more years of "cold civil war" in America's political life? After 24 months of a once-a-century pandemic? After George Floyd's killing, coast-to-coast riots and a coast-to-coast crime wave? And now with Russia's invasion of Ukraine rekindling hot war in Europe? With "the year 2025" looming ever closer? What was then at hand, in fact, was "The End of History" (the nasty bits, anyway), according to a 1992 book more emblematic of that optimistic era, by political scientist Francis Fukuyama. I wrote about this " Fourth Turning freakout" at the time, seeking to defend the reputation, not of Bannon or Trump, but of a book I had found to be an irreducibly odd but stubbornly interesting work of history-cum-prophecy.Īuthored by demographers, generational theorists and investment gurus Neil Howe and the late William Strauss, "The Fourth Turning" appeared 25 years ago now, in a comparatively placid era - back when mild-mannered Bob Dole Republicans debated deficit-fighting, welfare-reforming, Bill Clinton "New Democrats" over how best to use the "peace dividend" that had flowed from the end of the Cold War. "Bannon's views," confided the New York Times, "can be traced to a book that warns 'winter is coming,' " and "forecasts the destruction of society as we know it" with "religious subtext and dark premonitions." If there is a war, it is likely to be one of maximum risk …."įive years ago, in the spring of 2017, numerous national media outlets suffered a brief panic attack over a then 20-year-old book they largely dismissed as crackpot pseudoscience but said was an ominous "obsession" of Steve Bannon, the spooky populist adviser to then-newly inaugurated President Donald Trump. crack up geographically or succumb to authoritarian rule. The nation could erupt into insurrection. ![]() The risk of catastrophe will be very high …. "Sometime before the year 2025, America will pass through a great gate in history, commensurate with the American Revolution, Civil War, and the.
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